Raul Mareco, from the NINJA Collaborative Coverage at COP30

In May 2024, Rio Grande do Sul plunged into a climate calamity unprecedented in its history. After weeks of torrential rains—the result of extreme meteorological phenomena, intensified by human influence—the state faced devastating floods.

Just on the eve of the start of COP30, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, on November 7th, the heart of Paraná was shaken by an extreme weather event in the municipality of Rio Bonito do Iguaçu, where a tornado with winds of 330 km/h destroyed 90% of the city.

These disasters are not mere chance: they are the culmination of a predictable scenario where climate change and decades of misguided administrative choices converged.

Rio Grande do Sul

The floods in Rio Grande do Sul pointed to a future already foreseen by scientists, for which the state proved tragically unprepared.

The numbers reveal the brutal scale of that tragedy. Between 151 and 169 lives were lost, with another 44 to 104 people still missing; 581 thousand to 615 thousand citizens of Rio Grande do Sul were forced to abandon their homes; more than 2.2 million—almost 25% of the entire state—were directly affected; between 458 and 471 municipalities were impacted by floods, covering over 90% of the state’s area.

In Porto Alegre, Lake Guaíba reached an unprecedented level of 5.35 meters, surpassing the previous record of 4.76 meters registered in 1941. 

This rise breached historical defenses, flooded neighborhoods, closed the airport, stopped essential services, and left hundreds of thousands without power and drinking water. 

Rains exceeded 300 mm in less than a week in several cities.

Projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) point to an even greater frequency and intensity in the near future.

The scientific explanations showed that this deluge was produced by three main forces:

An atmospheric block caused by a high-pressure system in the South Atlantic redirected moisture from the ocean and the Amazon to the state via the South American Lower-Level Jet (SALLJ)—a current of intense winds occurring at low altitude, mainly between Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina, and Southern Brazil.

A jet stream brought additional instability to the storms.

Subsequently, the effects of El Niño and global warming increased the probability of the event by more than twofold and intensified the rainfall by up to 10%.

Inconsequential political decisions, future tragedies

The disaster was not limited to meteorology. It was a crisis designed by the state’s political and administrative history.

Political decisions made since the 1990s, such as cuts in the public sector and neoliberal policies, led to the weakening of environmental and urban protection structures. 

The end of the Porto Alegre Pluvial Sewage Department (DEP) in 2018 exacerbated pre-existing flaws. 

Various environmental regulations were relaxed, leading to significant loss of native vegetation. 

The abandonment of flood defense systems and lack of equipment maintenance worsened the problems, while urban expansion ignored natural risks and prioritized real estate interests.

The result was the increased vulnerability of the poorest populations, Indigenous, and Quilombola communities, exposed to the greatest risks due to planning failures and the pursuit of profit over life.

In the context of these climate extremes and state dismantling, reconstruction is not enough; it is necessary to reverse decades of negligence and deregulation and invest in preventative actions.

The beautiful river that cried 

Paraná, in turn, faced an equally alarming episode this month. The tornado that hit Rio Bonito do Iguaçu, with winds above 330 km/h and classified between F3 and F4, destroyed about 90% of the urban areas. To put this into perspective, the Fujita scale, used to classify the intensity of tornadoes based on their destructive force and wind speed, ranges from F0 (minimum) to F5 (maximum).

 F3 tornado winds range from 254 to 332 km/h, causing severe damage, destroying roofs and walls of solid structures, derailing trains, uprooting trees, and launching heavy objects through the air.

F4 tornado winds range from 333 to 419 km/h, causing extreme devastation, brick houses can be demolished, cars and heavy machinery are thrown great distances, and landscapes are completely transformed.

These tornadoes represent an extreme risk to life and infrastructure due to their enormous destructive power.

There were seven deaths, over 750 injured, and a thousand homeless. Heavy agricultural machinery was tossed over long distances, demonstrating the phenomenon’s force. 

Mobilization was swift, with Firefighters, Civil Defense, the Army, federal agencies, and the population itself, in a broad act of solidarity, operating in a state of public calamity, providing support for reconstruction and assistance.

COP30 cannot repeat the failure of the Paris Agreement

COP30, hosted in Belém/PA, which gathers leaders from nearly 200 countries, must bring practical directions based on debates about the necessary actions to face the climate crisis.

Evidently, there is no coincidence between real tragedies and the diplomatic meetings that highlight the urgency of action—not just in agreements, in stands with beauties diametrically opposed to the tragedies of the South, in debates full of “pavulagem” (local slang for ostentation/showing off) and panels with exhibitions bordering on luxury, while there is trash left over from the floods and tornadoes.

Rhetoric is only a premise for effectiveness when public policies and honest investments are agreed upon to prevent new human and structural losses.

The era of extremes

After all, experts already state: Brazil and the world are living in the era of extremes, including severe storms, prolonged droughts, heat and cold waves, all becoming more frequent with global warming.

According to studies by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global temperature has increased by 1.3^\circ C to 1.4^\circ C since the pre-industrial era. This changes atmospheric patterns, making tragedies like those in Rio Bonito do Iguaçu increasingly common.

The Paris Agreement, enshrined by 194 countries plus the European Union, is a climate treaty, adopted in 2015, whose main objective is to limit global warming to well below 2ºC, preferably to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels. 

Government leaders committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, reviewing targets every five years, and seeking means of adaptation and climate financing.

To date, despite isolated progress, the world has not fully met its commitments: global emissions remain high.

Most national targets fall short of what is necessary to guarantee the 1.5^\circ C limit—meaning the global effort is still insufficient to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

COP30 can be crucial for bringing international financing, strengthening resilient infrastructure, focusing on prevention and sustainable urban planning, reforestation actions, monitoring risk areas, and environmental education to prepare citizens and municipalities.

More than promises, the future demands real execution: rebuilding what has been lost, reforming public policies, investing in alert systems, and ensuring that decisions are made prioritizing lives and ecosystems, not immediate interests. 

The tragedies in the South show that the most vulnerable are devastatingly affected.

The response needs to be collective and integrated—government, civil society, private sector. 

It is time not just to react, but to prevent, transform, and innovate.

The legacy of COP30 will be measured not by speeches in Belém, but by the safety, reconstruction, and social justice for the affected regions.

 What is at stake is the future of Brazil and the planet in the face of a climate crisis that has already ceased to be a prediction and has become a daily reality.